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Yes, I know I must be crazy to say the PPP could lose the next election. Everyone I spoke with in the Diaspora and in Guyana spoke as if it’s a done deal. The PPP,Deion Sanders Falcons Jersey, they say, will win the next election. So why am I going against consensus? What makes me feel that the PPP could lose?Now I am not going to pretend to be a political analyst or expert pollster. We see enough of those “experts” in letter columns of this paper. The trouble with those writers is that they always have an agenda to push for one party or the other.Me? I have no alliance so my opinions are completely unbiased at least from my perspective. Of course you are all familiar with the saying “Don’t count your chickens before they hatch” and as the Americans say “It’s not over until the fat lady sings”Most of the major political parties will spend vast sums of cash hiring so called American election experts to run their campaign. The PPP won the last election by a mere 4.6 per cent— a little over 31,000 votes, that is the figure the PPP will be fighting to hold on to, that is what the opposition will have to whittle away. It is simple as that.Let’s look at some statistics from previous elections to see where I am going with this. In 1997 the PPP received 220,667 votes or 55.3 per cent. Come 2001 elections and using the National List, the PPP got 210,013 votes or 53 per cent, not a too significant drop.Come 2006 elections and here is where the figures become interesting. The PPP gained a little over one percent vote over the 2001 elections despite securing over 26,000 votes less than the 2001 elections.Put another way in the 2001 elections there were 396,516 valid votes, in 2006 valid votes were 336,375; a drop of 60,000 voters of which the PPP had a drop of about 26,000 supporters.Now if you look carefully, this is a significant drop for the PPP despite winning by 31,000 votes (I am using round figures).So the question here is can the PPP hold on to its margin of victory in the last election or can the combined opposition make inroads on that margin? The PPP has been losing votes in the last two elections. However the party has been winning because the opposition has been losing significantly more votes.If the opposition parties increased their votes in the coming election and the PPP continues to lose votes the outcome of the next elections could surprise the PPP.There is another factor here to be taken into consideration. There will be a new pool of voters, some of whom were born when the PPP came into power or were just a few years old.This group is not going to be swayed much by what the PNC did during its reign, so there has to be other factors to win their votes. I am predicting that it is this new group of voters that will decide the next elections.No doubt the PPP will be showing all its accomplishments to convince this group and older voters why it should be returned to power.If the PNC selects a credible leader it may win back some of the voters who stayed away from the last elections.Remember the combined opposition lost about 34,000 votes in the 2006 elections from the 2001 elections. Right now the PPP base (sugars workers) is not happy. There seems to be a rift in the PPP between GAWU and certain leaders in the party.Will disenchanted PPP supporters stay away from the next elections? When you consider once again that the PPP won by only 31,000 votes, the party has to be very careful how it approaches this election.I am no way saying the any one opposition party will defeat the PPP, but rather, their combined votes could whittle away at the PPP’s four percent majority.Another factor we have to take into consideration is who will lead the PPP into the next election. The new leader will play a major factor in PPP voter turn out. Freedom House has lost a lot on influence under the Jagdeo administration.Will the party go for a younger candidate again? I doubt it very much. The PPP old guard will want to regain their power and influence in a future PPP government. So I believe they will go for an older head.Ralph Ramkarran and Donald Ramotar seem to be the leading PPP candidates at the moment. The PPP has to think this one through carefully. Who would attract more votes for the PPP? Ramotar or Ramkarran?Some may argue that Ramotar may appeal more to the PPP base, to me that is not going to help win the elections, the PPP base is their base and they are likely to vote PPP anyway.For the PPP to win it has to get the cross over votes. Who will command more respect from the general electorate especially non traditional PPP voters? The answer is clearly Ralph Ramkarran?Some people I spoke with feel that Ramkarran will bring a new sense of fairness, transparency and accountability to a new PPP Government, so lacking under the current administration.Another factor in Ramkarran’s favour is that Donald Ramotar seems to have the backing of the President; some see this as a way to still hold influence in a future PPP Government.I said earlier that the PPP old guard and Freedom House will want to regain their influence. If as it is perceived that Mr. Jagdeo will have influence over Ramotar, Freedom House will be in a win win situation by going for Ramkarran.Moses Nagamootoo, Navin Chandarpal, Frank Anthony and other PPP stalwarts may very well throw their support behind Ramkarran to ensure a PPP victory. After all 31,000 votes is a beatable figure.