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Identifying and understanding risk is the first step to mitigating it, says Finance Minister, Winston Jordan.The economist pointed out that the government embarked on several initiatives within the Ministry of Finance to enhance capacity to conduct economic analysis and to assess risks to continued growth and development.Jordan said that a Macro-Fiscal Forecasting Committee has begun meeting on a monthly basis to discuss the economic outlook of the nation and generate macroeconomic forecasts.The Finance Minister said that good forecasts of macroeconomic conditions are an essential input into developing appropriate economic and fiscal policies.He said that while there is often a high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates in any economic forecast, a good forecast provides an accurate broad outlook for the economy and highlights the risks and uncertainties that officials should consider when making forward-looking policies.Finance Minister, Winston JordanOver the past year, he said that the Ministry of Finance, with support from the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC), has been working to improve its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasting.He said that this led to the birth of an interagency Macro-Fiscal Forecasting Committee, which includes representation from the Bureau of Statistics,NFL Jerseys Cheap, Bank of Guyana, Guyana Revenue Authority, and multiple divisions within the Ministry of Finance.The Committee is responsible for advising on the data, assumptions, and judgments that go into the forecast model. The Committee is chaired by the Director of the Office of the Budget, Sonya Roopnauth and managed by the Economic Policy Analysis Unit within the Office of the Budget, which is also responsible for updating and maintaining the forecast model.According to Minister Jordan, the Macro-Fiscal Forecasting Committee meets on a monthly basis. It held its first meeting on May 20, last. In addition to providing inputs to the forecast model, meetings provide a valuable opportunity for interagency discussion about key risks and challenges for economic growth and development.In the future, the Committee will also be responsible for analyzing the error margin on its forecasts and making improvements to the forecast model.Jordan recalled that in November 2015, CARTAC conducted a workshop with staff from the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Guyana, Bureau of Statistics, and Guyana Revenue Authority to develop a model for forecasting key variables in the real and fiscal sectors of the economy, and train staff in the model’s use.He said, too, that it was last June that a second workshop was conducted to develop models for the external and monetary sectors of the economy.The Finance Minister said that to produce an accurate forecast, the models require high quality data input and subjective judgments from experts in each sector of the economy.